Background: Significant overtreatment of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms can be attributed to low specificity of the current International Consensus Guidelines as well as nonconformity with the guidelines. We compare the ability of the 2012 and revised 2017 intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms International Consensus Guidelines to predict high-grade dysplasia/invasive cancer and to determine the preoperative variables that predict resection of benign or low-grade dysplasia in tertiary care centers. Methods: Clinical, radiographic, and pathologic data for resected intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms at 3 high-volume National Cancer Institute Cancer Centers were reviewed and the 2012 and 2017 consensus criteria were retrospectively applied. When International Consensus Guidelines were not met, clinical decision analysis was used to determine the primary indication for resection. Logistic regression identified variables associated with pathologic grade. Results: Records for a total of 251 patients were reviewed, 129 of whom (52%) had low-grade dysplasia. The revised 2017 International Consensus Guidelines had high sensitivity (98.4%) and negative predicted value (96.1%), and all high-risk stigmata predicted high-grade dysplasia/invasive cancer; however, specificity remained low (14.8%). Nonconformity with International Consensus Guidelines was the most powerful predictor of low-grade dysplasia on final pathologic examination (9.5; 2.12–40.78). Independent predictors of low-grade dysplasia included age younger than 50 (2.46; 1.08–5.62), fine-needle aspiration without epithelial cells (2.6; 1.43–4.72), and normal duct diameter (3.07; 1.99–4.75). Diabetes developed in 30% of patients after resection. Conclusion: Management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms remains clinically challenging. Low specificity of the International Consensus Guidelines and nonconformity with the guidelines continue to contribute to unnecessary pancreatic resections. Improved tools for disease classification as well as a better understanding of the natural history, biology, and rates of progression of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms are needed to avoid surgical overtreatment of low-grade intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms.
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