Projected Prevalence of Obesity in Aseptic Revision Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty

Background: The purpose of this study was to develop projections of the prevalence of obesity in aseptic revision THA and TKA patients through the year 2029. Methods: The National Surgical Quality Improvement Project (NSQIP) was queried for years 2011-2019. Current procedural terminology (CPT) codes 27134, 27137, and 27138 were used to identify revision THA and CPT codes 27486 and 27487 were used to identify revision TKA. Revision THA/TKA for infectious, traumatic, or oncologic indications were excluded. Participant data were grouped according to body mass index (BMI) categories: underweight/normal weight, <25 kg/m2; overweight, 25-29.9 kg/m2; class I obesity, 30.034.9 kg/m2; class II obesity, 35.0-39.9 kg/m2; morbid obesity ≥ 40 kg/m2. Prevalence of each BMI category was estimated from year 2020 to year 2029 through multinomial regression analyses. Results: 38,325 cases were included (16,153 revision THA and 22,172 revision TKA). From 2011 to 2029, prevalence of class I obesity (24% to 25%), class II obesity (11% to 15%), and morbid obesity (7% to 9%) increased amongst aseptic revision THA patients. Similarly, prevalence of class I obesity (28% to 30%), class II obesity (17% to 29%), and morbid obesity (16% to 18%) increased in aseptic revision TKA patients. Conclusion: Prevalence of class II obesity and morbid obesity demonstrated the largest increases in revision TKA and THA patients. By 2029, we estimate that approximately 49% of aseptic revision THA and 77% of aseptic revision TKA will have obesity and/or morbid obesity. Resources aimed at mitigating complications in this patient population are needed. Level of Evidence: III.