Predicting 5-Year Clinical Outcomes After Transcatheter or Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement (a Risk Score from the SURTAVI Trial)

Risk prediction scores for long-term outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) or surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) are lacking. This study aimed to develop preprocedural risk scores for 5-year clinical outcomes after TAVI or SAVR. This analysis included 1,660 patients at an intermediate surgical risk with severe aortic stenosis randomly assigned to TAVI (n = 864) or SAVR (n = 796) from the SURTAVI (Surgical Replacement and Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation) trial. The primary end point was a composite of all-cause mortality or disabling stroke at 5 years. The secondary end point was a composite of cardiovascular mortality or hospitalizations for valve disease or worsening heart failure at 5 years. Preprocedural multivariable predictors of clinical outcomes were used to calculate a simple risk score for both procedures. At 5 years, the primary end point occurred in 31.3% of the patients with TAVI and 30.8% of the patients with SAVR. Preprocedural predictors differed between TAVI and SAVR. Baseline anticoagulant use was a common predictor for events in both procedures, whereas male sex and a left ventricular ejection fraction <60% were significant predictors for events in patients with TAVI and SAVR, respectively. A total of 4 simple scoring systems were created based on these multivariable predictors. The C-statistics of all models were modest but performed better than the contemporary risk scores. In conclusion, preprocedural predictors of events differ between TAVI and SAVR, necessitating separate risk models. Despite the modest predictive value of the SURTAVI risk scores, they appeared superior to other contemporary scores. Further research is needed to strengthen and validate our risk scores, possibly by including biomarker and echocardiographic parameters.