Nomograms for the prediction of pathologic stage of clinically localized prostate cancer in Korean men

We analyzed the prostate cancer data of 317 Korean men with clinically localized prostate cancer who underwent radical prostatectomy at Asan Medical Center between June 1990 and November 2003 to construct nomograms predicting the pathologic stage of these tumors, and compared the outcome with preexisting nomograms. Multinomial log-linear regression was performed for the simultaneous prediction of organ-confined disease (OCD), extracapsular extension (ECE), seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) and lymph node metastasis (LNM) using serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA), Gleason score and clinical stage. Nomograms representing percent probabilities were constructed and compared with those presented by Partin et al. by calculating areas under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Median serum PSA at surgery was 10.8 ng/mL, and median biopsy Gleason score was 7. Overall OCD, ECE, SVI and LNM rates were 59.6%, 20.5%, 11.7% and 8.2%, respectively, and areas under the curves were 0.724, 0.626, 0.662, and 0.794, respectively. Pathologic stage of localized prostate cancer in Korean men may be predicted using the Partin table, with acceptable accuracy for OCD and LNM, but less so for ECE and SVI.