Exploring the fragility of meta-analyses in ophthalmology: a systematic review

Objective: The fragility index (FI) of a meta-analysis evaluates the extent that the statistical significance can be changed by modifying the event status of individuals from included trials. Understanding the FI improves the interpretation of the results of meta-analyses and can help to inform changes to clinical practice. This review determined the fragility of ophthalmology-related meta-analyses. Methods: Meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials with binary outcomes published in a journal classified as ‘Ophthalmology’ according to the Journal Citation Report or an Ophthalmology-related Cochrane Review were included. An iterative process determined the FI of each meta-analysis. Multivariable linear regression modeling evaluated the relationship between the FI and potential predictive factors in statistically significant and non-significant meta-analyses. Results: 175 meta-analyses were included. The median FI was 6 (Q1–Q3: 3–12). This meant that moving 6 outcomes from one group to another would reverse the study’s findings. The FI was 1 for 18 (10.2%) of the included meta-analyses and was ≤5 for 75 (42.4%) of the included meta-analyses. The number of events (p < 0.001) and the p-value (p < 0.001) were the best predictors of the FI in both significant and non-significant meta-analyses. Conclusion: The statistical significance of meta-analyses in ophthalmology often hinges on the outcome of a few patients. The number of events and the p-value are the most important factors in determining the fragility of the evidence. The FI is an easily interpretable measure that can supplement the reader’s understanding of the strength of the evidence being presented.