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Estimation of the age-specific per-contact probability of Ebola virus transmission in Liberia using agent-based simulations

Constantinos I. Siettos, Cleo Anastassopoulou, Lucia Russo, Christos Grigoras, Eleftherios Mylonakis

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationInternational Conference of Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics 2015, ICNAAM 2015
EditorsTheodore E. Simos, Theodore E. Simos, Charalambos Tsitouras, Theodore E. Simos
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9780735413924
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 8 2016
EventInternational Conference of Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics 2015, ICNAAM 2015 - Rhodes, Greece
Duration: Sep 23 2015Sep 29 2015

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
Volume1738
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616

Conference

ConferenceInternational Conference of Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics 2015, ICNAAM 2015
Country/TerritoryGreece
CityRhodes
Period9/23/159/29/15

Keywords

  • Agent-based modeling
  • Complex Networks
  • Contact Transmission Probability
  • Ebola Epidemic
  • Liberia

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Physics and Astronomy

Divisions

  • Infectious Disease

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